Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
